Survival post II - smoke screens

Smoke screen one - Change is happening FAST!  Isn’t it?

I want high velocity change!
But I don't get what I want...
I get what I need.

 Moores laws illustrates the phenomenon of computer processor speeds doubling every 18 - 24 months.   This rate of change creates a ripple affect across many industries as new products get smaller and the frequency of better, faster versions becoming available is shorter.  This creates a perception that everything around us is changing SUPER FAST!  Most of us feel the ripple affect when we experience things like the Internet, real time Facebook, and a plethora of apps on our smart mobile devices.  

We change agents observe a paradigm of unprecedented levels of change along with a whole lot of noise.  Thank you social media and some gazillion channels on YouTube and cable TV.  There is great change going on.  But is it really any more than societies have experienced at other times in history?  Could it be that we are just so much more connected that we hear about everything that is going on and it makes us think that more paradigms are shifting now then at other times in history?

Alongside all this noise and change is an opposing force that arguably neutralizes Moore's potential for impact on society. I suggest that this force is even slowing the rate of change within our societies.  This momentum killer is the same force that creates inertia for Moores law. The force growing in inertia is us.  There are a lot of us that innovate cool things and there are a lot more of us that don't like change.  We are highly skeptical stick in the muds that prefer retarded momentum.  Just look at our US congress for proof of that.  The average age of a Senator is 60 and 55 for a house of representatives.  We need a bunch of 30 year olds in there.  

The global group of us that resist change the most are our so called “seniors”.  This group is growing from 7% of the population in 2000 to a projected 16% by 2050. See the wisdom years.  And conversely the 0-19 year old change agent group is actually shrinking from 39% to 27%.  This leaves the majority of us in the middle-aged group of 20 – 64 year olds.  Because I think we start getting more resistant to change in our mid 50’s the momentum killer group is going to be even larger.  In 2010 the 55-64 group was already 100M+.  These stodgy old farts are going to be very opinionated by 2050 and a lot larger too. 

Another important factor is that the largest concentration of the change agent group is located in developing nations.  This is likely to reduce their proportional impact on the momentum of societal change.  At least in the short term.  

For you bottom liners, all this to say we have to accept that there exists a powerful force pushing against the notion that change is good thereby making change quick.  When you ask people to change their behavior, be prepared to wait awhile.  I will talk more in depth on this as a strategy in my next post.  If you want your product  adopted quickly, create something that doesn't require your target audience to change their behavior.

What's next?  An historical example of slow change

OK, that is was lot of macro data to take in and 2050 is way out there.  So lets look back in time in my next post.  We will learn how long it took for one of the most powerful mood creator, paradigm changers in history to gain momentum, and do an autopsy on the unintended consequence that helped the inventor win the race.

Survival - part one... Collision point vs. Tipping point.

Survival - part one

Intro

Is the survival of a BIG idea for the smartest, luckiest, quickest or the most committed?  In the next few blog posts I will discuss 5 fundamental survivalist techniques for entrepreneurs, artists and anyone who pursues changing the world and wants to make a living while you do it.

Discover and conceive

As a technologist, consultant, start-up mentor and entrepreneur I find myself on a never ending quest to  address the needs of niche markets as I listen to their problems and preferences and assess the readiness to change.  I research to discover innovative technologies, ideas, and attitudes that already exist so they can be combined with the magic sauce of gap filler technologies, creative ideas and simple business models to meet a need and survive.  The 1M+ apps on Apple's app store alone illustrate the magnitude of the possible BIG ideas as well as potential competitors.   Once you have conceived your next BIG idea, understanding the difference between collision point and tipping point is one essential survival technique.

Collision Point or Tipping point?

Collision point

When I think I am onto an innovative idea to a address a need or problem using a combination of technologies discovered or developed, I remind myself of the even more difficult task of predicting how ready the market is to like and adopt it.  Whether is it a new song, gizmo, software or movie, the earliest possible point of marketability is when the market need/desire intersect with product's capability. I call this the collision point.    It might look exciting, and even inspiration at first, like the photo above showing the collision of protons and electrons.   But many times in the life cycle of an idea the point where the collision occurs only touches a small portion of the market, like the innovators and maybe the early adopters portion of the graph shown below.  

Take the 4 million MySpace artists whose Mom's loved their latest song.  That small biased market research is not an indication that there is a market out there ready to buy your product.  A willing few may share with their friends, especially when it costs them nothing.  To an experienced optimist like myself this may be all that is needed to jump energetically head first into an empty pool.  Some of my early ideas were merely empty pools because I was unprepared for the adventure ahead.  If you are full of testosterone, and armed with an MBA like I was, you may be tempted to beat your competition to the market and find your own empty pool.  If you do, your great swan dive of faith could leave you unconscious at best and might even render you comatose.....unless you've planned to survive the iterative cycle of new product and market development!  

The Tipping point

Several years ago as I argued passionately for a early stage business concept with a my boss, he told me that the pioneers are the guys with the arrows in their backs.  He didn't want to take the risk.  I couldn't argue with that.  I had my share of arrows.  If you have an early stage idea and want to be one of the pioneers who can survive a few arrows then develop a plan for surviving until the market's tipping point arrives.  

The tipping point is when the stars align for your BIG idea.  Malcolm Gladwell's book The Tipping Point is a great read.  The tipping point can be the smallest combination of things that have evolved to make conditions perfect for adoption within your SAM (serviceable available market) to build with some momentum behind it.  For the fax machine, just enough people had to have one before everyone needed one to compete.  

I don't know if it is possible to make tipping point estimation a science, but we are certainly capable of seeing the trends develop in our social media world.  Now we can listen to the discussions of our market by searching key words and hash tags, measure the trend's growth and predict the arrival of the tipping point.  I also highly recommend Seth Godin's Tribes for a detailed look at building momentum.

We will explore some strategies like prototyping, MVP, and hibernation, in other blog posts.  For now I will only highlight that tools like patents, copyrights and strategies for perseverance will give the survivors the extra stuff needed to wait while market conditions evolve.  Then when the market conditions are right, you can paddle out into an ocean of opportunities and ride a wave of momentum.  If you time the wave right, you might be one of the few to reach the wave's crest and be the market leader.  

What's next?


In my next post we will continue this discussion and explore the smoke screens that can mislead us into believing our market's tipping point is just around the corner when it really isn't.  And will look at some strategies for riding the storm out.  Until then hang on and enjoy the ride and look out for empty pools.